Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model and its assessment of the impact of MUP in Ireland
You can read the report relating to MUP in the Republic of Ireland here:
The University of Sheffield modelling estimates that with a €1 MUP per standard drink (assuming that it’s updated annually in line with inflation):
- Across the whole population, mean weekly consumption would reduce by 8.8%
- Across the whole population, 37.5% of alcohol purchased would be affected
- In both income groups (those in poverty and not in poverty), absolute reductions in consumption are estimated to be small for low risk drinkers and much larger for high risk drinkers
- Across the whole population, spending increases by 1.3% or €15.70 per drinker per year (€0.30 per week)
- Effects on health are estimated to be substantial, with alcohol-attributable deaths estimated to reduce by approximately 197 per year after 20 years, by which time the full effects of the policy will be seen
- Similar patterns are observed amongst reductions in alcohol-related hospital admissions, with an estimated 5,878 fewer admissions per year across the population
- Direct healthcare costs are estimated to reduce by €7.4m in year 1 and €254.7m cumulatively over the first 20 years of the policy
- Crime is estimated to fall by 1,493 offences per year overall and the costs of crime and policing are estimated to reduce by €7m in year one and by €102.7 cumulatively over 20 years
- Workplace absence is estimated to be reduced by 115,600 per year. This is estimated to lead to an annual saving of €16.1m in year one and €236.6m over 20 years
- The total societal value of these reductions in health, crime and work place harms is estimated at €1.7bn over the 20 year period modelled. This includes direct healthcare costs (€255m), crime costs (€103m), workplace costs (€237m) and a financial valuation of the quality adjusted life year (QALY) gain (€1.1bn)
- Overall revenue to the Exchequer from duty and VAT receipts is estimated to reduce by 2.1% or €34.3 million
- Revenue to retailers is estimated to increase by €68.5million (18.1%) in the off-trade and €9.3million (0.7%) in the on-trade. This is as reduced sales volumes are more than offset by the increased value of remaining sales.